Time series models of annual electricity consumption 1955-1977

The thesis deals with time series modelling of electricity demand data. Various techniques are used including ARIMA modelling, error correction modelling and cointegration analysis. Some forecasts have also been generated

Making evaluations matter: a practical guide for evaluators

This guide is primarily for evaluators working in the international development sector. It is also useful for commissioner of evaluations, evaluation managers and M&E officers. The guide explains how to make evaluations more useful. It helps to better understand conceptual issues and appreciate how evaluations can contribute to changing mindsets and empowering stakeholders. On a practical level, the guide presents core guiding principles and pointers on how to design and facilitate evaluations that matter. Furthermore, it shows how to get primary intended users and other key stakeholders to contribute effectively to the evaluation proces

Modulation of the CD8+-T-cell response by CD4+ CD25+ regulatory T cells in patients with Hepatitis B virus infection

CD4+ CD25+ regulatory T cells have been shown to maintain peripheral tolerance against self and foreign antigens. In this study we analyzed the effect of circulating CD4+ CD25+ T cells on CD8+-T-cell responses of patients with chronic and resolved hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. We demonstrated that circulating CD4+ CD25+ T cells modulate the function and expansion of HBV-specific CD8+ cells ex vivo in all patients, regardless of whether they have chronic or resolved HBV infection. The possible role of CD4+ CD25+ T cells in the pathogenesis of chronic HBV infection is not supported by these data. However, these results might have implications for optimizing future immunotherapeutic approaches to HBV treatment

Southern Hemisphere automated supernova search

The Perth Astronomy Research Group has developed an automated supernova search program, using the 61 cm Perth–Lowell reflecting telescope at Perth Observatory in Western Australia, equipped with a CCD camera. The system is currently capable of observing about 15 objects per hour, using 3 min exposures, and has a detection threshold of 18th–19th magnitude. The entire system has been constructed using low‐cost IBM‐compatible computers. Two original discoveries (SN 1993K, SN 1994R) have so far been made during automated search runs. This paper describes the hardware and software used for the supernova search program, and shows some preliminary results from the search system

Spatial variation in the effects of size and age on reproductive dynamics of common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus

The effects of size and age on reproductive dynamics of common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus populations were compared between coral reefs open or closed (no-take marine reserves) to fishing and among four geographic regions of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. The specific reproductive metrics investigated were the sex ratio, the proportion of vitellogenic females and the spawning fraction of local populations. Sex ratios became increasingly male biased with length and age, as expected for a protogyne, but were more male biased in southern regions of the GBR (Mackay and Storm Cay) than in northern regions (Lizard Island and Townsville) across all lengths and ages. The proportion of vitellogenic females also increased with length and age. Female P. leopardus were capable of daily spawning during the spawning season, but on average spawned every 4·3 days. Mature females spawned most frequently on Townsville reserve reefs (every 2·3 days) and Lizard Island fished reefs (every 3·2 days). Females on Mackay reefs open to fishing showed no evidence of spawning over 4 years of sampling, while females on reserve reefs spawned only once every 2–3 months. No effect of length on spawning frequency was detected. Spawning frequency increased with age on Lizard Island fished reefs, declined with age on Storm Cay fished reefs, and declined with age on reserve reefs in all regions. It is hypothesized that the variation in P. leopardus sex ratios and spawning frequency among GBR regions is primarily driven by water temperature, while no-take management zones influence spawning frequency depending on the region in which the reserve is located. Male bias and lack of spawning activity on southern GBR, where densities of adult P. leopardus are highest, suggest that recruits may be supplied from central or northern GBR. Significant regional variation in reproductive traits suggests that a regional approach to management of P. leopardus is appropriate and highlights the need for considering spatial variation in reproduction where reserves are used as fishery or conservation management tools

The Snuffbox Arteriovenous Fistula for Vascular Access

AbstractObjectives to determine the applicability, patency rates and factors influencing patency of snuffbox arteriovenous fistulae for haemodialysis access. Design retrospective non-randomised study. Materials and methods patency was determined by reference to an ongoing database and dialysis records of 645 vascular access procedures between 1985 and 1997, including 210 snuffbox fistulae in 201 patients. Results snuffbox fistulae comprised 189/376 (50%) primary procedures. Records of 208 snuffbox fistulae were available for patency analysis by the life-table method. Twenty-two (11%) thrombosed within 24 hours of operation. After six weeks 80% were used for dialysis. Cumulative patency was 65% at 1 year and 45% at 5 years. After thrombosis of snuffbox fistulae, ipsilateral wrist fistulae could be constructed in 45%. Fistula patency was significantly better in men than women (p<0.001) and for left- than right-sided fistulae (p<0.001). Diabetes, age >70 years, and the prior commencement of haemodialysis did not significantly affect fistula survival. Conclusions the snuffbox AV fistula gives a long segment of arterialised vein for needling and preserves proximal vessels. It is feasible in 50% of patients requiring primary access and has good long-term patency, especially in men. A more proximal fistula may be preferable in women with smaller vessels

Plumage and ecology of cormorants

The paper draws on data attending the etho-ecology of four species of cormorants (Phalacrocoracidae) in support of an hypothesis for the adaptive significance of the predominantly dark plumage of these birds. It is suggested that a dark plumage, primarily by being most receptive to solar radiation, assists cormorants in supplementing metabolic heat for maintenance of normal body temperature. In those cormorants which have white extending over ventral and frontal aspects of the body, it is suggested that this is an adaptation to the feeding situation and that it promotes 'hunting camouflage' through countershading

Addressing the clumsiness loophole in a Leggett-Garg test of macrorealism

The rise of quantum information theory has lent new relevance to experimental tests for non-classicality, particularly in controversial cases such as adiabatic quantum computing superconducting circuits. The Leggett-Garg inequality is a "Bell inequality in time" designed to indicate whether a single quantum system behaves in a macrorealistic fashion. Unfortunately, a violation of the inequality can only show that the system is either (i) non-macrorealistic or (ii) macrorealistic but subjected to a measurement technique that happens to disturb the system. The "clumsiness" loophole (ii) provides reliable refuge for the stubborn macrorealist, who can invoke it to brand recent experimental and theoretical work on the Leggett-Garg test inconclusive. Here, we present a revised Leggett-Garg protocol that permits one to conclude that a system is either (i) non-macrorealistic or (ii) macrorealistic but with the property that two seemingly non-invasive measurements can somehow collude and strongly disturb the system. By providing an explicit check of the invasiveness of the measurements, the protocol replaces the clumsiness loophole with a significantly smaller "collusion" loophole.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Chapter 12: Vulnerability of fishes of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change

Climate change has already caused significant impacts to Earth’s ecosystems. Shifts in plant and animal biogeographic ranges, changes to population abundance, adjustments in the timing of seasonal activities and the establishment of invasive species have all been attributed to climate change. Most examples of biological impacts from climate change involve terrestrial species, however, similar effects have been observed in marine species, especially from temperate regions. The impact of climate change on coral reefs has also been widely considered, mostly with regard to coral bleaching and the degradation of coral communities. Much less attention has been given to the impact that climate change will have on other organisms that are associated with coral reefs. Fish are one of the most conspicuous and diverse components of tropical marine ecosystems, yet how they will be affected by climate change has not been comprehensively assessed.This is Chapter 12 of Climate change and the Great Barrier Reef: a vulnerability assessment. The entire book can be found at http://hdl.handle.net/11017/13

The use of a cephalonium containing dry cow therapy and an internal teat sealant, both alone and in combination

AbstractThe dry period is a critical time in the lactation cycle, being the optimum time to cure existing intramammary infection (IMI) as well as encompassing the periods of highest susceptibility to new infection. Currently, IMI in the dry period is controlled with antibiotic dry cow therapy. The aim of this randomized control trial was to investigate different dry cow therapy regimens by stratifying cows by likely infection status at drying off in herds with low somatic cell count (SCC; bulk milk SCC <250,000 cells/mL) in southwest England. All quarters in 890 cows were recruited. The recruited cows were categorized as either infected or uninfected on the basis of SCC and clinical mastitis history. Ipsilateral quarters within each cow were randomly allocated to receive 1 of 4 different treatment regimens according to their infection category. Quarters in high-SCC infected cows were allocated to receive antibiotic dry cow therapy either alone or in combination with an internal teat sealant; quarters in low-SCC uninfected cows were allocated to receive teat sealant either alone or in combination with antibiotic dry cow therapy. All quarters were sampled for bacteriology at drying off and again within 10 d post-calving. Quarters were subsequently monitored for clinical mastitis for the first 100 d of lactation. The mass of residual sealant was assessed immediately post-calving to allow assessment of the association of sealant retention with treatment efficacy. Models were constructed to assess the efficacy of the different regimens in preventing IMI. Apparent cure rates of existing IMI with major pathogens were consistently >90% in quarters receiving antibiotic. Combination treatment of high-SCC infected cows resulted in an increased likelihood of being pathogen free post-calving (odds ratio=1.40; 95% credibility interval=1.03–1.90). The benefits of combination treatment of low-SCC uninfected cows were less clear. With respect to clinical mastitis, combination treatment of high-SCC infected cows resulted in a decreased likelihood of developing clinical mastitis in the first 100 d of the subsequent lactation (odds ratio=0.68; 95% credibility interval=0.48–0.98). The retention of the internal sealant was adversely affected by its use in combination with antibiotic dry cow therapy